May 29 Baardsen

4% treasury 10 year attractive
carry trade borrow at 20bp, get 400bp from treasuries


Jan 23 FTFM

FEar more likley breakup of Eurozone, PIIGS
Like 1920s prewar Gold STandard
Hadto bring down prices

uncompetitive
internal prices must fall
Greek tension is a reality
Default within Europe possibility

what would cause the greatest consternation
China shrinking by end of the year
dollar appreciate
gment bond markets outperform

QE not succeeding - possibility of that !?

another deflationary period
risk averse strategy pays off

shortage of dollars in world!
50 trn debt outstanding

looking not to lose money
intellectual prejudice that prevents them from going in my way

I say - the emperoro is naked

Eclectica

12/1/2009 cnbc

people don't know whats happening in next 12 months
keeping flexible
liars or foolish

only game in town, buying gment bonds

euro face uphill task, flawed mechanism
spells trouble euro, german bonds

1974 110%, now 340%, will go lower over nex 20 years

believer in peak oil
exploitation very small now, 10 years shortfall

brown most bearish person on oil thats why bp

go for unleveraged parts of world, oil and agriculture

cantango, forward oil is $70, thats why tankers on oceans waituing for higher prices

eclectica

10/12/2008 cnbc

people exiting hedge funds even if successful

difficult to make rational decision making in equities

incentivised other people to tell rubbish

bonds in bubble territory now

big opps in tips?


commodities, i got wrong agriculture
devastated


get in on way up, get out going down